Charlie ([info]vruba) wrote,
@ 2007-06-02 22:01:00
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calls

I predict, within the next fifteen years or so, in no particular order:

  1. More good news about women in the developing and undeveloped world. Microcredit especially is a big deal.
  2. Better computer input methods. Qwerty keyboards and two-button pointers are getting mighty stale.
  3. Several more cross-cutting tricks in the style of Exposé; the window GUI will fade gently into the next big thing. (Phones seem to be pushing UI at the moment, but desktop screens are still getting bigger, so I dunno.)
  4. More huge statistical and data-mining projects, many of them indirect. The example I’ve been using is extracting climate data from photos on Flickr.
  5. Far more GIS, geotagging, local services (like Craig’s List), etc. It may seem like a big fad now, but it’ll look measly in ten years.
  6. Likewise, more amateur and indie music and movies. Just you wait.
  7. More from Southeast Europe and the Balkans: Hungary, Romania, Macedonia, etc.
  8. India and China will keep getting scarier and more interesting. This may be the conventional wisdom, but nonetheless. There are more English speakers in China than in the US, and they will eventually start voting on Slashdot and commenting on Metafilter.
  9. Ex-Soviet Central Asia will be a more obvious enigma.
  10. Better investigative journalism all over the world – fewer state media monopolies and less room for major corruption of conventional kinds. Robber barons will rely less on hiding and more on spin.
  11. Better point-of-sale systems, especially receipts. Leaps and bounds in credit and debit card processing.
  12. Fewer 7-segment LCDs and visible printed pixels.
  13. Needless to say, I hope, far more LEDs everywhere. Colorful commercial signs will look way better and we’ll pity the days of incandescents, neon, and half-burnt-out six-foot-tall store names (“S FE AY”).
  14. Likewise, street lamps such as will make our orange beasts look amazingly dated. Astronomers will have to give over to the safety and comfort of properly lit night driving.
  15. A wider variety of better food for cheaper.
  16. Better consumer batteries. Lithium-ion will seem like lead-acid.
  17. In graphic design:
    1. A return of neat looks: Magritte-like matte abstractions, Tintin-like clean-line illustration, and spare, Japanese-influenced red, white, and black compositions. These will be reminiscent of the saner parts of the 70s and 80s.
    2. More (attention to) serifed and modulated fonts with distinctive terminals and plays on straight lines, like Electra, Californian, and Dante. A revival of Dutch and English typographical history.
    3. New deep looks with woven and woodcut textures – see, e.g., “embellish”, “filigree”, and “blankets” here. Lots of fabric themes: silk, Persian carpets, batik, Latin American weaving, etc.
  18. Cheaper, smaller, more personalized lots of consumer goods. Shirt slogans, shoe shapes, posters, dishes, and so on will be of your choice for something like a 20% markup on the mass-produced version.
  19. Entertainment set in prehistory – a sitcom about dinosaurs, a drama about the Clovis culture, etc.
  20. More and more popular third-party food and trade certifications.

Ideally there would be a stronger way of expressing these – as cheap long bets, say – to make sure they’re controversial and well defined.




(16 comments) - (Post a new comment)


[info]gfrancie
2007-06-03 05:35 am UTC (link)
Sitcom about Dinosaurs!

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[info]vruba
2007-06-03 05:45 am UTC (link)
I was not aware of that.

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[info]gfrancie
2007-06-04 03:43 am UTC (link)
Hee.
I still wouldn't mind a drama about the Visigoths and the Gauls. Something a little less camp than Rome but still light-hearted enough that some fans would swoon over Liuvigild the last Arian king or something.

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[info]glowing_fish
2007-06-03 05:47 am UTC (link)
I thought the same thing.

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[info]aredridel
2007-06-03 02:35 pm UTC (link)
I so was going to say the same thing.

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[info]glowing_fish
2007-06-03 06:32 am UTC (link)
So if you were to divide these trends, how many would you say were extrapolations of things we have seen so far and circular returns;

And how many do you think we would say were new trends or reversals?

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[info]vruba
2007-06-03 07:20 am UTC (link)

(Can I answer without making a comprehensive statement about determinism? Do people get credit for predicting things that happened spontaneously?)

Most of them are just things I remember thinking “that still hasn’t happened?!” about – they’re gut instincts, and a mix of your categories. LEDs, I suppose, are a strict extrapolation. They’re in the newspapers. Prehistoric entertainment is sheer hunch. I happened to wonder why there wasn’t any and couldn’t figure it out.

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[info]glowing_fish
2007-06-04 08:02 pm UTC (link)
People don't get credit for predicting things that happen spontaneously, but they sometimes do get money.

I was just wondering if you predict any bigger turn-arounds. Like, its a pretty good guess that cell phones will get more features, and smaller, but perhaps cell phones will actually get larger. (As an example).

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[info]dreefee
2007-06-03 07:25 am UTC (link)
I would really like to see a footnoted version of this list, identifying studies, articles, or information that supports your predictions.

Especially with the prediction about more and better food. I've studied how global warming is impacting agriculture in California, and to say I am concerned about food security is to put it mildly. Among many problems, climbing temperatures are causing mountain snows to melt earlier each year, the runoff exceeding the capacity of reservoirs built to hold a slow trickle. A primary source of water for agricultural (and other) use is thus likely to grow increasingly short.

If you've heard about this, I'd really like to know what you think.

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[info]zinniazayda
2007-06-03 08:12 am UTC (link)
I was surprised by the food prediction too.

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[info]jazkharma
2007-06-03 10:14 pm UTC (link)
I was surprised by the "cheaper" prediction. Maybe I just moved to a dessert where absolutely everything is imported and green bell peppers drop bellow $5/lb about a week out of the year... but I haven't noticed food getting -cheaper- just about ever.

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[info]jazkharma
2007-06-03 10:14 pm UTC (link)
s/dessert/desert/

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[info]gorillapotter
2007-06-03 01:59 pm UTC (link)
I sure hope you're right!

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[info]bluesbodger
2007-06-03 05:01 pm UTC (link)
I'll give you two to one on #16. Everything I've seen* suggests that we're just not going to do much better on batteries: They've always sucked, they're going to keep on sucking, and maybe if we're real lucky we can use what we learned to bootstrap fuel cells.


*(But note my handwaving and the lack of footnotes.)

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[info]jazkharma
2007-06-03 10:12 pm UTC (link)
I must seen different things than you seen.

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[info]jes5199
2007-06-04 06:25 pm UTC (link)
since LEDs are directional, I kinda hope that they'll start making street lamps that point down

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